Over-85s set to triple by 2066, ABS tells Commission – and we don’t have the fiscal base to support them

The number of people aged over 85 is set to increase from 493,000 in 2017 to a projected 1.5 to 2.2 million in 2066, according to Justine Boland, Program Manager for the Health and Disability at the Australian Bureau of Statistics who was quizzed by the Commissioners for just over an hour today – and Australia won’t have workers to foot the bill.

Ms Boland says their research shows the dependency ratio – the number of people in every 100 people aged outside the traditional working ages of 15 to 64 – is set to jump from 52 in 2017 to 58 by 2042 – and that’s only under the medium assumptions.

Rates of disability are also forecast to increase, particularly among women – a fact that caught the attention of Commissioner Ms Lynelle Briggs AO who queried whether it was because they don’t have partners at home to look after them.

Ms Boland told the Commission that the data on the marital status of aged care residents isn’t collected in the Census (an interesting tidbit) so she can’t confirm this – but overall the rate of disability is still higher for women than men.

The Commissioners were also clearly interested by the statistics on the use of subsidized mental health services and prescription medications which showed older people are less likely to use mental health services. However, the use of medications – including antidepressants and antipsychotics – skyrockets from the age of 65 before peaking at around 30% for people aged 85 and over.

Expect the issue of drugs – particularly psychotropics – to be raised again.

Seniors Counsel Assisting Peter Gray QC also pointed out a bizarre anomaly – home care workers are not included in the ABS’s industry classification for aged and disability workers.

Instead home care has been rolled into the 8790 classification which also covers adoption services, marriage guidance services, Alcoholics Anonymous and soup kitchens.

Not quite the same thing.